Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- f54dcf37-e095-489d-8afd-9ab1631a2d15
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T02:15:13.673432+00:00 · external market id: 2937526 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-14T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 2fb62029-558a-44d1-9c28-39f1726d5df0
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
33fa3a07-1aff-4684-9810-8d128608f116Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.