Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 7.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 7.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- eff07b86-bf29-449a-a593-dd8e1d75059a
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 7.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T22:14:59.288159+00:00 · external market id: 3324625 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: bcd9708b-943d-4c9b-b8b1-fb26b2ec72a4
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
cc3894d6-a521-4739-9d53-6e43eae2c07fLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 7.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.