Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 10f25c71-bf9d-4096-9622-90f846a96bd3
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T02:15:38.659702+00:00 · external market id: 3491438 · resolution deadline at: 2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 22069a8e-7b15-4d2f-a650-53b302bcf7bf
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
11d88be1-a73c-45d0-aefe-aa05a1cc302bLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.