Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- f12ecc69-12d7-4a2f-a794-b6584aa1a458
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 05:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 05:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T17:15:03.482019+00:00 · external market id: 3502066 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: f886a5a4-fba3-4e1f-99cf-9d7f8de81173
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
5025c6e4-39f6-4206-ae25-8fc6876858c2Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.