Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- d46fc4f1-5cd0-41c0-9e24-8cce0a7ff178
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T22:14:59.288159+00:00 · external market id: 2952488 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 42b85d3b-b5a3-4fff-b6d6-ae037cd080d4
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
ecc2e987-00fa-4fc8-91f0-b2239d193588Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.