Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 4a734c21-4c9c-4021-8982-9b7cae765b4e
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 14, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-11T12:14:30.859822+00:00 · external market id: 3348048 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
0b86651b-7db1-409b-a2d4-2c103386611bLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.