Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 35406922-cf17-4a6a-b949-342b958dcbff
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T07:15:58.454549+00:00 · external market id: 2243896 · resolution deadline at: 2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: bee876d3-18b9-44a3-b870-a8f22c6cdfb3
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
8a8f91c5-7b42-4d62-8601-57ef3e4a7df1Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.