Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 47a4c16c-15d4-436b-b4e9-d04130288702
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2026, 01:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 17, 2026, 01:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-14T01:16:32.193532+00:00 · external market id: 3502067 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: a0c4d9c0-682d-4491-a141-ed2d1c2ea638
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
7d261810-618c-4a4f-ba4d-20834065e6a2Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.