Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 6e65519f-5372-4915-a041-0b06343e2c3e
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2026, 04:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 17, 2026, 04:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-14T16:15:04.655418+00:00 · external market id: 3121260 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: b99b4ac2-7c25-43a8-b157-f6095fd5dea8
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
2af8d2cf-220a-4ad3-9c55-b42bb267dd4aLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.