Canonical expectation · romania
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
Another NATO article 4 by...?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 19
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
Source ↗NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
- Volume
- 3K
- Liquidity
- 917.7
- Observed
- 5 days ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first