Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 246
Selected events: 148
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 8 lower-value propositions folded away

iranverified signal

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Related source markets · $69.3K traded in 24h

latest verified signalOctober 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
73.5%↗ +1.5pp
largest material moveDecember 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
80.4%↘ -1.9pp

oilobserved move

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Related source markets · $3.1K traded in 24h

largest material moveAugust 19

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 19, 2026?

10%

↘ -1pp

highest 24h activityAugust 11

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?

88.9%—

politicsobserved move

Iran leadership change by...?

Related source markets · $1.9K traded in 24h

largest material moveJune 30, 2027
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
32.5%↗ +0.5pp

iranverified signal

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Related source markets · $90.2K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
97%↗ +1.4pp

politicsobserved move

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Related source markets · $1.6K traded in 24h

largest material moveDecember 31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
18%↘ -0.5pp

oilactive event

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Related source markets · $25.1K traded in 24h

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
4.3%↘ -0.1pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
2%—

iranverified signal

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Related source markets · $57.9K traded in 24h

latest verified signalUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
32.5%↘ -1pp

oilactive event

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Related source markets · $30.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
14.5%—

politicsactive event

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Related source markets · $19.1K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3.8%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $30.8K traded in 24h

leaderNo Meeting by September 30
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
45.5%↗ +0.6pp
credible challengerSwitzerland
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
19%↗ +0.5pp

politicsactive event

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Related source markets · $5.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityEgypt
Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
9.7%—
highest source probabilitySomaliland
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%—

pop cultureverified signal

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $392.6K traded in 24h

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
92.5%↗ +68pp
latest verified signal200-219
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
16.5%—