Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 230
Selected events: 139
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 6 lower-value propositions folded away

politicsverified signal

South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $188.0K traded in 24h

leaderDarline Graham Nordone
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
64.5%↗ +5pp
latest verified signalRalph Norman
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
29.5%↘ -3pp

pop cultureobserved move

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $13.3K traded in 24h

leader180-199
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
20.5%↗ +1pp
credible challenger160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
19.5%—

uknear resolution

Clacton by-election Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $255.1K traded in 24h

leaderNigel Farage
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
99.2%↗ +0.1pp
highest 24h activityCount Binface
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
0.9%↘ -0.1pp

united statesactive event

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $35.6K traded in 24h

leaderJ.D. Vance
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
44.2%↗ +0.2pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
23.4%→ 0pp

presidentactive event

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $70.5K traded in 24h

leaderJD Vance
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21.7%→ 0pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12.4%↘ -0.1pp

aliensactive event

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Related source markets · $24.2K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityDecember 31
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4.5%→ 0pp
ranked representativeSeptember 30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
2.1%↘ -0.1pp

resignactive event

Trump out as President by August 31?

Related source markets · $181.4K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityTrump out as President by August 31?
0.5%↘ 0pp

us presidential electionactive event

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $16.9K traded in 24h

leaderDemocratic
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
58.5%—
credible challengerRepublican
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
40.5%—

politicsverified signal

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $95.0K traded in 24h

leaderUnited Russia (ER)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
66.5%→ 0pp
largest material moveNew People (NL)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
26.3%↗ +1.4pp

united statesactive event

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $40.2K traded in 24h

leaderDemocrats Sweep
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
46.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerR Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
40.5%→ 0pp