Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 231
Selected events: 141
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 4 lower-value propositions folded away

iranverified signal

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Related source markets · $86.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
97%↗ +1.4pp

politicsobserved move

Iran leadership change by...?

Related source markets · $1.9K traded in 24h

largest material moveJune 30, 2027
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
32.5%↗ +0.5pp

oilactive event

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Related source markets · $25.1K traded in 24h

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
4.3%↘ -0.1pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
2%—

iranverified signal

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Related source markets · $57.4K traded in 24h

latest verified signalUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
32.5%↘ -1pp

politicsobserved move

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Related source markets · $1.5K traded in 24h

largest material moveDecember 31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
18%↘ -0.5pp

oilactive event

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Related source markets · $40.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
14.5%—

iranverified signal

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $39.8K traded in 24h

leaderNo Meeting by September 30
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
45.5%↗ +0.6pp
credible challengerSwitzerland
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
19%↗ +0.5pp

politicsactive event

Trump out as President before 2027?

Related source markets · $18.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityTrump out as President before 2027?
6.5%—

iranverified signal

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

Related source markets · $142.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
95%↗ +0.5pp
highest 24h activityAugust 14
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
94.5%→ 0pp

politicsactive event

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Related source markets · $5.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityEgypt
Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
9.7%—
highest source probabilitySomaliland
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%—

pop cultureverified signal

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $71.7K traded in 24h

leader<40
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
52%↗ +26.5pp
latest verified signal40-64
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
43.5%↘ -9pp

russiaverified signal

Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?

Related source markets · $37.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalYabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
97%↗ +17.5pp

Current record per subject

Recent Signals

5 shown · older snapshots remain in the public ledger

DeskSignalEvent / subjectValid untilUpdated

RulesRevocation of Class E Airspace; Lake Geneva, WI is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen3 days ago

RulesHazardous Materials: Allowing Fireworks Certification Agencies (FCAs) To Approve Professional Fireworks is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen3 days ago

RulesBacillus thuringiensis eCry1Gb.1Ig Protein; Exemption From the Requirement of a Pesticide Tolerance is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen3 days ago

ExpectationsProbability of Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations movedOpen4 days ago

ExpectationsProbability of Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations movedOpen4 days ago