Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 233
Selected events: 142
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 5 lower-value propositions folded away

politicsactive event

Brazil Presidential Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $31.9K traded in 24h

leaderLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerFlávio Bolsonaro
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
27%↘ -0.2pp

economyverified signal

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $7.5K traded in 24h

leaderNVIDIA

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

70.5%

→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Monthly

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $39.2K traded in 24h

leader≥0.1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
79%↗ +16.5pp
credible challenger0.0%
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
15.5%↘ -11pp

cpi releasematerial repricing

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Related source markets · $20.3K traded in 24h

largest material moveFed rate hike in 2026?
59.5%↗ +5pp

techobserved move

Largest Company end of August?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $44.3K traded in 24h

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
91.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeApple
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
5.1%↗ +0.6pp

rewards 200 4pt5 50observed move

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $30.0K traded in 24h

leader0 (0 bps)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
85.3%↘ -0.5pp
ranked representative1 (25 bps)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9.5%→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Annual

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $23.1K traded in 24h

leader3.4%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
38.5%↗ +1pp
largest material move3.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
33%↘ -6pp

aiverified signal

Grok 4.6 released by...?

Related source markets · $26.9K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 14
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?
76%↘ -0.5pp
largest material moveAugust 21
Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026?
93.5%↗ +43pp

openaiobserved move

GPT-6 released by…?

Related source markets · $1.3K traded in 24h

largest material moveDecember 31, 2026
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
86.5%↘ -1pp

financeactive event

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $9.9K traded in 24h

leader$1.25–$1.5T
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
19.5%—

aiverified signal

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

Related source markets · $26.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
36.7%↘ -17pp
ranked representativeAugust 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp

financeactive event

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Related source markets · $8.4K traded in 24h

highest 24h activity↑$1.5T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
62.5%—
highest source probability↑$1.25T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
90.5%—