Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 231
Selected events: 141
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 4 lower-value propositions folded away

iranverified signal

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

Related source markets · $19.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.3%↘ -0.1pp

iranactive event

Will Iran target Ukraine by...?

Related source markets · $18.2K traded in 24h

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?
4.1%—
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
1.6%

—

cryptoverified signal

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Related source markets · $522.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
21%↘ -5.5pp

politicsverified signal

South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $117.3K traded in 24h

leaderDarline Graham Nordone
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
64.5%↗ +5pp
latest verified signalRalph Norman
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
29.5%↘ -3pp

french electionverified signal

Next French Presidential Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $39.1K traded in 24h

leaderMarine Le Pen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
32.9%↗ +2.6pp
credible challengerÉdouard Philippe
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
25.5%→ 0pp

parent for derivativeverified signal

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $37.0K traded in 24h

leaderDemocratic Party
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
86.5%↘ -2pp
credible challengerRepublican Party
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
12.5%→ 0pp

laverified signal

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $71.5K traded in 24h

leaderKaren Bass
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
64.5%↗ +1pp
largest material moveNithya Raman
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
35.8%↗ +1.1pp

united statesverified signal

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $17.9K traded in 24h

leaderGavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17.7%↘ -0.1pp
credible challengerJon Ossoff
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15.8%↘ -0.2pp

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $56.0K traded in 24h

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
35.5%↗ +11pp
largest material move140-159
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
21.5%↗ +13pp

fomcmaterial repricing

Fed Decision in September?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $782.2K traded in 24h

leaderNo change
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
58.5%↘ -2pp
largest material move25 bps increase
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
40.5%↗ +3pp

senate electionsobserved move

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $43.9K traded in 24h

leaderRepublican Party
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
53.5%↘ -1pp
largest material moveDemocratic Party
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
46.5%↗ +1pp

california midtermobserved move

California Governor Election Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $27.5K traded in 24h

leaderXavier Becerra
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
93.1%↘ -1pp
highest 24h activitySteve Hilton
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7%↗ +0.9pp