Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 231
Selected events: 141
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 4 lower-value propositions folded away

politicsactive event

Brazil Presidential Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $31.2K traded in 24h

leaderLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerFlávio Bolsonaro
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
27%↘ -0.2pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Annual

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $19.9K traded in 24h

leader3.4%

Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?

38.5%

↗ +1pp

largest material move3.3%

Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?

33%↘ -6pp

rewards 200 4pt5 50observed move

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $29.3K traded in 24h

leader0 (0 bps)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
85.3%↘ -0.5pp
ranked representative1 (25 bps)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9.5%→ 0pp

aiverified signal

Grok 4.6 released by...?

Related source markets · $29.9K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 14
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?
76%↘ -0.5pp
largest material moveAugust 21
Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026?
93.5%↗ +43pp

openaiobserved move

GPT-6 released by…?

Related source markets · $1.3K traded in 24h

largest material moveDecember 31, 2026
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
86.5%↘ -1pp

financeactive event

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $9.9K traded in 24h

leader$1.25–$1.5T
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
19.5%—

aiverified signal

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

Related source markets · $26.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
36.7%↘ -17pp
ranked representativeAugust 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp

financeactive event

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Related source markets · $8.4K traded in 24h

highest 24h activity↑$1.5T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
62.5%—
highest source probability↑$1.25T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
90.5%—

aiobserved move

Which company has best AI model end of August?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $6.8K traded in 24h

leaderAnthropic
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
93.5%→ 0pp
largest material moveOpenAI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
4.2%↘ -0.5pp

pop cultureverified signal

# of views of MrBeast video week 1?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $34.4K traded in 24h

leader70-80M
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
83.7%↗ +46.1pp
credible challenger80-90M
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
13.1%↗ +10.5pp

bitcoinverified signal

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Related source markets · $44.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signal↑ 65,000
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
78.5%—
largest material move↓ 62,500
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
78%↗ +13.5pp

gamingverified signal

Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?

Related source markets · $722.8K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 16
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?
13%↗ +4.5pp
largest material moveAugust 17
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
18.5%↗ +5pp