Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 231
Selected events: 141
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 4 lower-value propositions folded away

politicsverified signal

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $90.6K traded in 24h

leaderUnited Russia (ER)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
66.5%→ 0pp
largest material moveNew People (NL)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
26.3%↗ +1.4pp

pop cultureobserved move

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $14.0K traded in 24h

leader180-199

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

20.5%↗ +1pp

credible challenger160-179

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

19.5%—

uknear resolution

Clacton by-election Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $251.1K traded in 24h

leaderNigel Farage
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
99.2%↗ +0.1pp
highest 24h activityCount Binface
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
0.9%↘ -0.1pp

united statesactive event

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $35.6K traded in 24h

leaderJ.D. Vance
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
44.2%↗ +0.2pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
23.4%→ 0pp

presidentactive event

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $69.6K traded in 24h

leaderJD Vance
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21.7%→ 0pp
credible challengerMarco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12.4%↘ -0.1pp

resignactive event

Trump out as President by August 31?

Related source markets · $195.4K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityTrump out as President by August 31?
0.5%↘ 0pp

politicsmaterial repricing

Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

Related source markets · $29.9K traded in 24h

largest material moveChristopher Luxon out by September 30?
57.5%↗ +39pp

united statesactive event

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $32.6K traded in 24h

leaderDemocrats Sweep
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
46.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerR Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
40.5%→ 0pp

politicsmaterial repricing

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $15.3K traded in 24h

leaderAlexandru Nazare
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
52.9%↗ +10.3pp

politicsactive event

Brazil Presidential Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $30.9K traded in 24h

leaderLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerFlávio Bolsonaro
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
27%↘ -0.2pp

economyverified signal

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $7.6K traded in 24h

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
70.5%→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Monthly

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $26.1K traded in 24h

leader≥0.1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
79%↗ +16.5pp
credible challenger0.0%
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
15.5%↘ -11pp