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Current Explore Archive Method

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Current Explore Archive Method

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Loading the latest verified snapshot.

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Open SignalPublic Beta

Current Explore Archive Method

operational

Current Explore Archive Method

English 繁體中文

operational

Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 90
Selected events: 55
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 7 lower-value propositions folded away

oilverified signal

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

Related source markets · $23.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
33.5%↗ +7.5pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTCComplete event view

Polymarket Gamma ↗

iranverified signal

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Related source markets · $6.4K traded in 24h

latest verified signalOctober 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
45%↗ +5pp
highest 24h activityDecember 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

56.5%

↗ +0.5pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC+2 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

politicsverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Related source markets · $159.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
50.5%↗ +4pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTCComplete event view

Polymarket Gamma ↗

geopoliticsverified signal

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Related source markets · $26.1K traded in 24h

latest verified signalSeptember 30
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
5.5%↘ -3pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Sep 30, 2026, 11:55 PM UTC+1 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

israelverified signal

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Related source markets · $32.5K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?
3.1%↘ -2.1pp
highest source probabilityDecember 31
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
15.5%↘ -1pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Aug 31, 2026, 03:59 AM UTCComplete event view

Polymarket Gamma ↗

middle eastverified signal

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Related source markets · $29.9K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
30%↘ -1.5pp
largest material moveSeptember 30
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
13%↘ -2pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Sep 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC+1 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

chinaobserved move

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Related source markets · $22.7K traded in 24h

largest material moveWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12.5%↗ +1pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Dec 31, 2027, 12:00 AM UTCComplete event view

Polymarket Gamma ↗

putinobserved move

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Related source markets · $13.2K traded in 24h

largest material moveJune 30, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
11.5%↘ -1pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Dec 31, 2026, 06:30 PM UTC+3 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

trumpactive event

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

Related source markets · $44.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityDecember 31
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
7.6%↗ +0.2pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTCComplete event view

Polymarket Gamma ↗

politicsverified signal

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Related source markets · $18.3K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
30%↘ -4pp
ranked representativeOctober 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
13.5%—

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC+1 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

iranverified signal

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Related source markets · $51.7K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
26.5%↗ +3.5pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC+6 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

oilverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Related source markets · $253.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
18.5%↗ +2pp

Observed 4 hours ago · resolves Sep 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTCComplete event view

Polymarket Gamma ↗

Page 1 of 5More events →

Current record per subject

Recent Signals

24 shown · older snapshots remain in the public ledger

DeskSignalEvent / subjectValid untilUpdated

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verified"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?Aug 13, 2026, 09:16 PM UTC22 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedGianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Aug 13, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC25 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? increased by 2.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verified2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)Aug 13, 2026, 05:15 PM UTC26 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Rodri join Barcelona? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhere will Rodri transfer?Aug 13, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC29 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedAnthropic IPO by __?Aug 13, 2026, 06:22 AM UTC37 hours ago

RulesImplementing Voluntary Agreements Under the Defense Production Act is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen39 hours ago

RulesReview of Submarine Cable Landing License Rules and Procedures To Assess Evolving National Security, Law Enforcement, Foreign Policy, and Trade Policy Risks is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen43 hours ago

RulesDPAS Directive Allocation Order and Additional Requirements for Recoverable Critical Minerals and Materials is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen43 hours ago

RulesPacific Halibut Fisheries of the West Coast; Inseason Action for the 2026 Area 2A Pacific Halibut Directed Commercial Fishery is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen43 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Israel closes its airspace by August 15? decreased by 1.3 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsrael closes its airspace by...?Open46 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? increased by 2.3 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?Open46 hours ago

RulesInvestment Company Governance Technical Amendments is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen47 hours ago

RulesMagnuson-Stevens Act Provisions; Fisheries Off West Coast States; Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery; Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery Management Plan; Amendment 36; Limited Entry Fixed Gear Follow-On Actions; Correction is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen47 hours ago

RulesAirworthiness Directives; Airbus Helicopters is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen47 hours ago

RulesAirworthiness Directives; Bell Textron Canada Limited Helicopters is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesLimits on Loans to Other Credit Unions is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesChartering and Field of Membership for Federal Credit Unions-Interpretive Ruling and Policy Statement 08-2 is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesAuction of FM Broadcasting Construction Permits Scheduled for February 2, 2027; Notice and Filing Requirements, Minimum Opening Bids, Upfront Payments, and Other Procedures for Auction 114 is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesSpecial Conditions: ATR-GIE Avions de Transport Régional Model ATR42-500 and ATR72-212A Airplanes; Electronic System Security Protection From Unauthorized Internal Access is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

Rules2-Propenoic Acid, 2-Methyl-, Telomer With 1-Dodecanethiol, and 2-Methyloxirane Polymer With Oxirane Monoether With 1,2-Propanediol Mono(2-Methyl-2-Propenoate) in Pesticide Formulations; Exemption From the Requirement for a Tolerance is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesFisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Reapportionment of Halibut Prohibited Species Catch Limits in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Management Area is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesOhio Regulatory Program is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesSafety Zones; Annual Events in the Captain of the Port Detroit Zone is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen2 days ago

RulesPacific Halibut Fisheries of the West Coast; 2026 Catch Sharing Plan; Inseason Action; Correction is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen3 days ago

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