Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 255
Selected events: 147
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 11 lower-value propositions folded away

politicsverified signal

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Related source markets · $18.1K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
29.5%↘ -5pp
ranked representativeOctober 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
13.5%—

iranverified signal

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Related source markets · $11.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

70.5%

↗ +5pp

highest source probabilitySeptember 30

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

77%—

oilverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Related source markets · $229.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
19%↗ +2.5pp

middle eastverified signal

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $64.8K traded in 24h

leaderMojtaba Khamenei
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
81.2%↗ +0.7pp
ranked representativeNo Head of State
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
4.9%↘ -0.2pp

hfcactive event

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Related source markets · $40.6K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityXi Jinping out before 2027?
4.7%↗ +0.2pp

trumpactive event

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

Related source markets · $44.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityDecember 31
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
7.6%↗ +0.2pp

reza pahlaviactive event

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Related source markets · $20.1K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Related source markets · $53.7K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
25.5%↗ +3pp
ranked representativeNovember 30
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
17.5%—

oilverified signal

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Related source markets · $22.5K traded in 24h

latest verified signalSeptember 30
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
5%↗ +1.8pp
largest material moveDecember 31
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
12.5%↗ +2pp

politicsverified signal

Iran leadership change by...?

Related source markets · $14.3K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
Iran leadership change by December 31?
18.5%↘ -1pp
highest source probabilityJune 30, 2027
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
32.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Related source markets · $77.4K traded in 24h

latest verified signalOctober 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
74%↗ +2pp
largest material moveDecember 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
80.4%↘ -2.4pp

oilverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Related source markets · $1.1M traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
5.4%↗ +1.6pp
ranked representativeAugust 15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
0.4%→ 0pp