標準預期 · ai
Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026?
Grok 4.6 released by...?
- 狀態
- active
- 結算
- 2026年8月21日 下午11:59 [UTC]
- 市場
- 1
- 已驗證訊號
- 0
命題、來源規則與市場說明目前保留英文原文，以避免未經驗證的翻譯改變結算含義。
目前市場狀態
來源機率，不是 Open Signal 預測
Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026?
來源 ↗This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- 交易量
- 9429.2
- 流動性
- 2436.5
- 觀測
- 1 小時前
結算契約
此命題如何結算
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- 權威來源
- 由來源市場規則定義
- 截止時間
- 2026年8月21日 下午11:59 [UTC]
- 標準化器
- production-1.0.0
已驗證訊號歷史
最新在前
此主題尚未發布經驗證的變化主張。