Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 906705b0-310f-42be-97f6-55ba248e3585
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 19, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-16T10:14:30.829458+00:00 · external market id: 3595791 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-25T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 53004147-bafd-406e-aa9f-d75f1ec8faf0
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
468d684e-f2c1-4b9e-8f36-0edfd7406fa0Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.