Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 82a443f4-95da-4fdf-a59c-d94667b75d18
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 03:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 03:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T15:14:55.571898+00:00 · external market id: 3253033 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-30T03:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 0232dec3-d764-454a-80a1-d32c3c3c265c
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
769e53e4-84d8-461a-b98d-ac35da64b516Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.