Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- ceee812b-c2b3-43a9-9e0c-fc0105db6e92
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 05:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 05:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T05:14:57.259721+00:00 · external market id: 3253029 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-25T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 4dab97c5-d8f6-4903-9a0b-a7ac28e7ff84
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
a8e18510-3dd2-4cd4-b69d-b2e7377cc7dfLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.