Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09? increased by 0.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09? increased by 0.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- a65c74a0-7e87-41cc-96fc-770b3b219273
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 03:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 03:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09? increased by 0.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T03:14:59.237119+00:00 · external market id: 1006912 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 856833c1-b1db-4c24-8783-27a1213e4e00
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
a57762cf-2860-4ab8-b68e-eb7bdc69d6ecLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09? increased by 0.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.