Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- d2b1c84b-51ff-4499-bfbd-366da35d46a8
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 11:16 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 11:16 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T23:16:18.403458+00:00 · external market id: 2663603 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 1e6aa0e1-d83b-4261-af3c-6e95b0406fce
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
f8aa4ea8-dee3-4e38-904d-02a55993ff96Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 5.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.