Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 2ed5d753-f493-4da8-a329-289f72f64915
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2026, 04:17 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 23, 2026, 04:17 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-20T04:17:32.526729+00:00 · external market id: 666819 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: eccbb376-1b86-4ae0-83d0-76472cf37ad7
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
1f72f2ca-3f47-46fe-a705-aac935f95d5eLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.