Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- faf27393-25f6-4d0c-8f2d-6e39cb3ec6c3
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T23:15:11.001971+00:00 · external market id: 2925991 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: da8afcba-2240-4373-8256-f85371346474
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
6201c7b2-d647-433b-8583-c93b0a7b64c3Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.