Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 7009e8b9-1dc9-4e8f-9bbe-eb89d64703ca
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 09:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 09:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T21:14:18.356114+00:00 · external market id: 2761138 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: efd37d29-990c-4663-8a68-076b3de793f4
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
2fcbcb0a-31c2-40b5-af1d-4b77de8f6394Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.