Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 1d774f27-f78c-4053-af5e-5558f13d87e9
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 11:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 11:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T11:15:11.280373+00:00 · external market id: 2668005 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 61160cb7-80a7-4717-bf61-947075e50a8d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
fc6d0e0a-7daf-4fb8-8d53-e2641d9724f2Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.