Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- fa8fd91e-bdb2-45da-9ab9-90f61f29c5a6
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T18:15:07.474614+00:00 · external market id: 3120760 · resolution deadline at: 2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 96531f0e-21ce-4981-833e-cbdac114436e
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
454a2bac-e27b-40a9-8cad-7a4883498eabLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.