依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 260
入選事件: 151
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午03:18 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 13 個較低價值命題

politicsactive event

Brazil Presidential Election

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.4萬

leaderLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerFlávio Bolsonaro
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
27%↘ -0.2pp

ecbverified signal

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6732.2

leader25 bps increase
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
86.5%—

觀測於 10 小時前 · 結算 2026年9月10日上午11:59 [UTC]+4 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Monthly

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.7萬

leader≥0.1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
79%↗ +16.5pp
credible challenger0.0%
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
15.5%↘ -11pp

cpi releasematerial repricing

Fed rate hike in 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.7萬

largest material moveFed rate hike in 2026?
59.5%↗ +5pp

bojobserved move

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6085.2

leader25 bps increase
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
59.5%↗ +2.5pp

techobserved move

Largest Company end of August?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.7萬

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
91.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeApple
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
5.1%↗ +0.6pp

rewards 200 4pt5 50observed move

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5.5萬

leader0 (0 bps)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
85.3%↘ -0.5pp
ranked representative1 (25 bps)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9.5%→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Annual

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.8萬

leader3.4%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
38.5%↗ +1pp
largest material move3.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
33%↘ -6pp

aiverified signal

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.3萬

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
36.7%↘ -17pp
ranked representativeAugust 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp

openaiobserved move

GPT-6 released by…?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$251.1

largest material moveDecember 31, 2026
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
86.5%↘ -1pp

financeactive event

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$9386.9

leader$1.25–$1.5T
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
19.5%—

aiverified signal

Grok 4.6 released by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.9萬

latest verified signalAugust 14
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?
76%—
highest source probabilityAugust 21
Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026?
93.5%—

每個主體的目前紀錄

近期訊號

顯示 9 筆 · 較早快照仍保留在公開帳本

編輯台訊號事件／主體有效至更新

規則變化Safety Zones; Annual Events in the Captain of the Port Detroit Zone is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Pacific Halibut Fisheries of the West Coast; 2026 Catch Sharing Plan; Inseason Action; Correction is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Special Local Regulations; Annual Les Cheneaux Islands Antique Wooden Boat Show, Marquette Bay, Hessel, MI is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Revocation of Class E Airspace; Lake Geneva, WI is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Hazardous Materials: Allowing Fireworks Certification Agencies (FCAs) To Approve Professional Fireworks is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Bacillus thuringiensis eCry1Gb.1Ig Protein; Exemption From the Requirement of a Pesticide Tolerance is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

預期變化Probability of Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations moved仍有效4 天前

預期變化Probability of Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations moved仍有效4 天前