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Open Signal公開測試版

即時版面探索典藏方法

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依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 239
入選事件: 145
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 6 個較低價值命題

aiverified signal

Grok 4.6 released by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.8萬

latest verified signalAugust 14
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?
86.5%↗ +10pp
highest source probabilityAugust 21
Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026?
93.5%—

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月14日下午11:59 [UTC]+3 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

openaiobserved move

GPT-6 released by…?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1253.9

largest material moveDecember 31, 2026
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
87%↘ -1pp

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年12月31日上午12:00 [UTC]+4 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

financeactive event

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$9386.9

leader$1.25–$1.5T
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
19.5%—

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年12月31日下午11:55 [UTC]+9 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

aiactive event

Which company has best AI model end of August?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5416.0

leaderAnthropic
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
93.5%→ 0pp
ranked representativeOpenAI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
4.2%↘ -0.1pp

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月31日上午12:00 [UTC]+19 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

financeactive event

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$8223.7

highest 24h activity↑$1.5T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
62.5%—
highest source probability↑$1.25T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
90.5%—

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2027年1月1日下午12:00 [UTC]+9 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

pop cultureverified signal

# of views of MrBeast video week 1?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.6萬

leader70-80M
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
80.6%↗ +43.2pp
credible challenger80-90M
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
15.6%↗ +13pp

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月15日下午11:59 [UTC]+5 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

gamingverified signal

Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$71.5萬

latest verified signalAugust 16
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?
14%↗ +5.5pp
highest 24h activityAugust 17
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
18.5%↗ +5pp

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年8月16日下午11:59 [UTC]+5 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

bitcoinverified signal

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.1萬

latest verified signal↑ 65,000
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
84.5%—
largest material move↓ 62,500
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
70.5%↗ +4.5pp

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年9月1日上午04:00 [UTC]+18 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

ethereumverified signal

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$86.5

latest verified signal↓ 1,750
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?
80%↗ +3.5pp
highest 24h activity↑ 2,000
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
85%↘ -1.5pp

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2027年1月1日上午05:00 [UTC]+22 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

fdvverified signal

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.0萬

latest verified signal$150M
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
73.5%↘ -0.5pp
largest material move$300M
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
37%↘ -2.5pp

觀測於 10 小時前 · 結算 2027年1月1日上午05:00 [UTC]+5 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

solanaverified signal

What price will Solana hit in August?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$298.6

latest verified signal↑ 80
Will Solana reach $80 in August?
58.5%↘ -1.5pp

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年9月1日上午04:00 [UTC]+15 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

businessmaterial repricing

IPOs before 2027?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.0萬

largest material moveAnthropic
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
82.5%↗ +9pp
highest source probabilitySHEIN
SHEIN IPO before 2027?
94.5%—

觀測於 8 小時前 · 結算 2026年12月31日上午12:00 [UTC]+27 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

← 較新事件第 6 頁，共 13 頁更多事件 →

每個主體的目前紀錄

近期訊號

顯示 24 筆 · 較早快照仍保留在公開帳本

編輯台訊號事件／主體有效至更新

預期變化The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran leader end of 2026?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? increased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? increased by 12.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?2026年8月14日下午01:14 [UTC]9 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran invades Kuwait by...?2026年8月14日下午12:14 [UTC]10 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?2026年8月14日下午12:14 [UTC]10 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedLargest Company end of December 2026?2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]11 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 0.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 20282026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]11 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? increased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext French Presidential Election2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]11 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWill Russia capture Lyman by...?2026年8月14日上午11:16 [UTC]11 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?2026年8月14日上午10:15 [UTC]12 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?2026年8月14日上午10:15 [UTC]12 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedSouth Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner2026年8月14日上午10:15 [UTC]12 小時前

預期變化The YES probability for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?2026年8月14日上午10:15 [UTC]12 小時前

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