依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 253
入選事件: 150
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 11 個較低價值命題

iranverified signal

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$7.0萬

latest verified signalOctober 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
74%↗ +2pp
largest material moveDecember 31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
80.4%↘ -2.4pp

politicsobserved move

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1557.5

largest material moveDecember 31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
18%↘ -0.5pp

觀測於 4 小時前 · 結算 2026年12月31日上午12:00 [UTC]

+2 個來源結果已收進此事件

Polymarket Gamma ↗

oilnear resolution

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$3000.9

highest 24h activityAugust 11
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?
88.9%—
ranked representativeAugust 19
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 19, 2026?
10%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$10.6萬

latest verified signalSeptember 30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
53.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
23.5%↗ +1pp

oilactive event

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.5萬

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
4.6%↘ -0.3pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
1.9%—

politicsactive event

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.9萬

highest 24h activityWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3.8%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.4萬

leaderNo Meeting by September 30
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
46.4%↗ +1.6pp
credible challengerSwitzerland
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
19%↗ +0.5pp

oilactive event

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.1萬

highest 24h activityStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
15%—

politicsactive event

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$5964.8

leaderNo meeting by December 31
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
66.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$9.6萬

latest verified signalAugust 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
97%↗ +1.3pp

pop cultureverified signal

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$39.7萬

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
85.5%↗ +50pp
latest verified signal200-219
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
16.5%—