依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 229
入選事件: 139
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 4 個較低價值命題

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Annual

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.0萬

leader3.4%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
38.5%↗ +1pp
largest material move3.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
32.5%↘ -6.5pp

rewards 200 4pt5 50active event

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.9萬

leader0 (0 bps)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
85.5%↘ -0.3pp
ranked representative1 (25 bps)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

9.5%

→ 0pp

aiverified signal

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$2.7萬

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
37.7%↘ -16pp
ranked representativeAugust 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp

openaiobserved move

GPT-6 released by…?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1337.8

largest material moveDecember 31, 2026
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
87%↘ -1pp

financeactive event

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$9876.9

leader$1.25–$1.5T
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
19.5%—

aiverified signal

Grok 4.6 released by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.0萬

latest verified signalAugust 14
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?
86.5%↗ +10pp
highest source probabilityAugust 21
Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026?
93.5%—

financeactive event

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$8382.5

highest 24h activity↑$1.5T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
62.5%—
highest source probability↑$1.25T
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
90.5%—

aiactive event

Which company has best AI model end of August?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6830.9

leaderAnthropic
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
93.5%→ 0pp
ranked representativeOpenAI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
4.2%↘ -0.1pp

pop cultureverified signal

# of views of MrBeast video week 1?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$3.4萬

leader70-80M
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
80.6%↗ +43.2pp
credible challenger80-90M
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
15.6%↗ +13pp

gamingverified signal

Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$72.3萬

latest verified signalAugust 16
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?
14%↗ +5.5pp
highest 24h activityAugust 17
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
18.5%↗ +5pp

bitcoinverified signal

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.5萬

latest verified signal↑ 65,000
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
84.5%—
largest material move↓ 62,500
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
70.5%↗ +4.5pp

ethereumverified signal

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$86.5

latest verified signal↓ 1,750
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?
80%↗ +3.5pp
highest 24h activity↑ 2,000
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
85%↘ -1.5pp