依訊號重要性排序

探索訊號與主題

每個市場仍保留為命題層級的公開紀錄；探索頁將它們按來源事件分組，只呈現領先者、重大變動者，或足以解釋事件為何此刻重要的可信挑戰者。

事件與市場標題目前保留來源的英文原文；介面、方法說明與時間格式已使用繁體中文。

符合資格的命題: 211
入選事件: 125
近期訊號主體: 287
排序截至: 2026年8月11日下午02:14 [UTC]

以事件為單位的預期

精選事件訊號

顯示 12 組 · 已收起 18 個較低價值命題

iranverified signal

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$17.1萬

latest verified signalAugust 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
97%↗ +1.3pp

oilnear resolution

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$849.8

highest 24h activityAugust 11
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?
88.9%—

politics

active event

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$1.8萬

highest 24h activityWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3.8%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$20.4萬

latest verified signalUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
34.5%↗ +1pp

oilactive event

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.9萬

highest 24h activityStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
15%—

irannear resolution

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$4.7萬

highest 24h activityAugust 15
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
1.3%↗ +0.1pp

french electionverified signal

Next French Presidential Election

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$6267.9

leaderMarine Le Pen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
32.9%↗ +2.6pp
credible challengerÉdouard Philippe
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
25.5%→ 0pp

united statesverified signal

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$8.3萬

leaderGavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17.5%↘ -0.3pp
credible challengerAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15.1%↗ +0.3pp

cryptoverified signal

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

相關來源市場 · 24 小時交易量 US$44.3萬

latest verified signalClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$11.9萬

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
33.5%↗ +9pp
credible challenger180-199
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
21.5%↘ -7pp

fomcmaterial repricing

Fed Decision in September?

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$146.7萬

leaderNo change
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
58.5%↘ -3pp
credible challenger25 bps increase
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
39.5%↗ +3pp

primary electionsnear resolution

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

互斥結果組 · 24 小時交易量 US$25.5萬

leaderByron Donalds
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
98.8%↗ +0.3pp
highest 24h activityJames Fishback
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0.8%↗ +0.1pp

每個主體的目前紀錄

近期訊號

顯示 15 筆 · 較早快照仍保留在公開帳本

編輯台訊號事件／主體有效至更新

規則變化Chartering and Field of Membership for Federal Credit Unions-Interpretive Ruling and Policy Statement 08-2 is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Auction of FM Broadcasting Construction Permits Scheduled for February 2, 2027; Notice and Filing Requirements, Minimum Opening Bids, Upfront Payments, and Other Procedures for Auction 114 is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Special Conditions: ATR-GIE Avions de Transport Régional Model ATR42-500 and ATR72-212A Airplanes; Electronic System Security Protection From Unauthorized Internal Access is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化2-Propenoic Acid, 2-Methyl-, Telomer With 1-Dodecanethiol, and 2-Methyloxirane Polymer With Oxirane Monoether With 1,2-Propanediol Mono(2-Methyl-2-Propenoate) in Pesticide Formulations; Exemption From the Requirement for a Tolerance is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效3 天前

規則變化Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Reapportionment of Halibut Prohibited Species Catch Limits in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Management Area is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Ohio Regulatory Program is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Safety Zones; Annual Events in the Captain of the Port Detroit Zone is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Pacific Halibut Fisheries of the West Coast; 2026 Catch Sharing Plan; Inseason Action; Correction is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Special Local Regulations; Annual Les Cheneaux Islands Antique Wooden Boat Show, Marquette Bay, Hessel, MI is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Revocation of Class E Airspace; Lake Geneva, WI is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Hazardous Materials: Allowing Fireworks Certification Agencies (FCAs) To Approve Professional Fireworks is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

規則變化Bacillus thuringiensis eCry1Gb.1Ig Protein; Exemption From the Requirement of a Pesticide Tolerance is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules moved仍有效4 天前

預期變化Probability of Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations moved仍有效5 天前

預期變化Probability of Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations moved仍有效5 天前