不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-11
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月11日 下午10:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 2 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- public permanent
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月11日 下午10:14 [UTC]
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- 82a19283222730f9…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01publishedsection_refresha54580f4 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh82bc4a71 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 2 小時前
- 快照
- 5126c3a2
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
52.5%→43.5%· 24h
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
47.8%→56.4%+8.6pp
觀測YES moved up by 8.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 小時前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 小時前
預期變化Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 小時前
機率變動
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
25.5%→32%+6.5 個百分點
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