Canonical expectation · uk
Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 2
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Source ↗A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
- Volume
- 43.4K
- Liquidity
- 25.2K
- Observed
- 6 days ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first