Canonical expectation · iran
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 21
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Source ↗This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Volume
- 364.4K
- Liquidity
- 41.4K
- Observed
- 2 days ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first