Canonical expectation · politics
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 3
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Source ↗This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
- Volume
- 480.5K
- Liquidity
- 77.4K
- Observed
- 4 days ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first