Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 26905222-5d14-4497-93ec-c83262928bb0
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 03:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 03:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T15:14:44.240081+00:00 · external market id: 3120643 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 6d0a61cb-a417-4b39-97d1-7618a711cc5d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
c19b21ba-9fb9-4190-8f45-53852baba6d6Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.