Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? increased by 4.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? increased by 4.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- ce33f9ac-9569-4106-9a28-9bb475bbef41
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 09:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 09:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? increased by 4.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T09:16:05.286460+00:00 · external market id: 2846148 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: e0f6ae89-d1b4-4d34-87b4-6771c68a5253
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
f5be955d-bfe9-4d2e-a234-f82cd5a950bdLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? increased by 4.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.