Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- ba9c263a-05c1-46df-8ffd-83e8cde88968
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2026, 05:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 19, 2026, 05:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-16T05:16:04.033505+00:00 · external market id: 2321906 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-17T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: cedb315c-2b2c-4d40-b56b-29f18f131e2d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
7a755208-20a2-4b45-88b9-799079546953Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.