Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- cff6e0e8-bfa0-46d7-858b-56b04f91cfd8
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 21, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-18T14:15:41.513401+00:00 · external market id: 3253029 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-25T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 4dab97c5-d8f6-4903-9a0b-a7ac28e7ff84
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
6660a420-e838-4bb0-bdc8-a5dc4ba63d9dLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? increased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.