Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- fab90863-4f29-40ec-bde7-a500dc4f6ca5
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2026, 01:17 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 18, 2026, 01:17 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-15T01:17:08.797801+00:00 · external market id: 3492558 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-15T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: af9b574c-4992-4cec-b565-a51015a4050e
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
3d41d1a1-9383-47cc-96b6-80be9c99c12aLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.