Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- f392a1f4-0b04-45de-be79-7d6a1739dcac
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 05:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 05:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T17:14:52.724557+00:00 · external market id: 3605776 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-19T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 5d620e8e-1118-4538-bb04-d27323b60153
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
c7116440-8d35-4511-aeb1-537aab821a97Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.