Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 57acaaa0-db8a-4aad-a158-e4b871ed10ef
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2026, 01:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 17, 2026, 01:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-14T13:15:04.838073+00:00 · external market id: 704424 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 279eea7b-a04c-4cf2-9b79-4a229154e9f6
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
79cb9298-7efe-4e49-a03d-6a667d17e2a7Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.