Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 50c3b0fe-515a-48e6-951a-cdba692e3e99
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 05:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 05:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T05:16:10.120525+00:00 · external market id: 3120645 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: bb52cf47-f850-4a93-9100-15a8641180e8
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
48796e14-67f9-47e4-acc8-287161155a53Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee? decreased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.