Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 000e8d29-8fe7-46ab-bcdf-7ae64c5d189a
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 09:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 09:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T21:15:29.172681+00:00 · external market id: 2510767 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 0e88705a-11a1-47db-84bb-5dd6620151b3
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
39b7c4a5-0df5-4445-92ab-7c699161dc4eLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.