Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? increased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? increased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 0ecb08c6-0477-4bb3-ab62-9fc8b5fb48a4
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 22, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? increased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-19T00:14:46.882289+00:00 · external market id: 3372765 · resolution deadline at: 2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: df4dc635-23a5-45c1-a8ce-3d82a0ed6e25
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
2530b59a-f609-44ed-99d2-64701dfe7913Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? increased by 8.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.