Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat? decreased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat? decreased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- ff9dd64e-390d-407e-99e5-716b07c37404
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2026, 05:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 19, 2026, 05:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat? decreased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-16T05:16:04.033505+00:00 · external market id: 1280881 · resolution deadline at: 2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 7935dfc0-4fcb-462a-8319-baf759431e35
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
cfecec8c-2813-4118-ae54-837302c0ef60Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat? decreased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.